Reid – Australia 2025

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9 COMMENTS

  1. Agree. I do not see this going back to the Liberals – especially not if they put Fiona Martin again. Her refusal to accept that she mixed up Sally Sitou with Tu Le was incredibly souring for many.

  2. They are not running Fiona Martin. They are running Grange Chung – candidate list has been updated, I’m just working through the profiles putting the information in.

  3. Hi Ben, no worries at all.

    I was wondering if Grange Chung is related at all to Craig Chung, the previous Liberal candidate for Kogarah in 2023?

  4. Just a correction on Fiona Martin and the Libs losing the seat in 2022. This was in large part due to Martin crossing the floor and voting against the Safe Schools Bill; she had reservations that the legislation did not go far enough in protecting LGBTQI students.
    She was subsequently abandoned by conservative members of her branches, who did not assist during the campaign.
    The Tu Le comments were largely overblown, and I think you’ll find the Asian community were influenced more by the above actions than comments on talkback.
    Interestingly, Sitou could not even vote in her own preselection as she was a member of the Fowler branches until a few months prior- indicating that both her and Tu Le were going to run for the Fed seat. Sitou then moved to Strathfield/Homebush to run for the state seat of Strathfield but this was circumvented by Jason Yatsen-Li’s candidacy (after Burwood Mayor John Faker refused Chris Minns’ offer to run)
    Nonetheless, I think Sitou holds, albeit with a very reduced margin- normalising the seat’s actual margin hovering between 0.5-2%.
    She hasn’t done herself many favours; Martin at least had the pandemic to blame. Sally has been a largely invisible and ineffective member during the last 3 years. There are many locally and externally who considered challenging but were discouraged by Head Office.
    Grange Chung for the Libs is largely seen as a sacrificial lamb who has no chance of winning the seat but will help reduce the margin for the next candidate, likely Frank Alafaci or Anthony Bazouni in 2028.

  5. In 2022, the swing to Labor was probably the largest outside WA. The swings were more pronounced in the southern and western parts where there are larger Chinese communities. Because of the size of the swing, there might be some calibration next election.

    The Drummoyne part is interesting. The state seat of Drummoyne was Labor-held for many decades until Labor was wiped out in 2011. It was gentrifying at the turn of the century with white-collar professionals moving in, likely because of the waterfront and proximity to the city. This bolstered the Liberal vote over several election cycles. In more recent years, it has become teal-ish. Drummoyne may swing to Labor due to this trend.

    @Wombater, Fiona Martin was a moderate Liberal. In the old Reid thread, someone said she tweeted about her resignation and tagged Simon Holmes a Court. This suggests she is more teal now.

    Fiona Martin got into a lot of trouble especially in her final few months. She was involved in various controversies. For example, a dozen or so of her staff walked out. An ex-Liberal ran as an independent and preferenced Labor ahead of her. She copped a lot of flack from The Australian of all news sources. For these reasons, the size of the swing didn’t surprise me.

  6. @Votante yep of all the seats Labor gained from the Coalition, the highest swing outside WA was in Reid. However some of the seats that switched to become non-classic contests had bigger notional swings from Liberal to Labor than Reid did.

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